Post-COVID scenarios: Four scenarios for the future of the visitor economy

The visitor economy in the Netherlands and around the world faced an unprecedented challenge with the emergence of COVID-19. With the first signs of the virus in China in December 2019 to its rapid spread across all continents, a global pandemic of unparalleled magnitude unfolded. To limit the virus’s spread and provide space for healthcare, countries worldwide implemented so-called lockdowns. Social life came to a halt, resulting in the global economy screeching to a standstill, with the visitor economy being the hardest-hit sector. This profound impact has led to deep uncertainties about the sector’s future.

Reason

With the abrupt cancellation of events, (inter)national travel restrictions, and the prohibition of group gatherings, public transportation came to a halt, planes remained grounded, leading to a complete collapse in revenue for tourist-recreational businesses and the hospitality sector. Bankruptcies were imminent, and a growing unemployment loomed as a threatening shadow over the industry. The uncertainty surrounding the duration of the virus and the crisis instilled fear, particularly due to the absence of a clear future perspective.

Problem solution

This project encompassed a scenario study, representing the initial phase of a developmental process. Our aim was for this study to serve as a foundation for a dialogue among stakeholders in the visitor economy. We aspired for these discussions to lead to more in-depth explorations of potential future scenarios. In doing so, we seek to develop a widely accepted perspective that not only inspires but also serves as a guiding framework for critically evaluating existing trajectories and potentially embark on new paths.

The project team consisted of:

• Guido Aerts, Program Manager CELTH, Breda University of Applied Sciences
• Jorrit Bijl, Program Manager CELTH, Center for Coastal Tourism Knowledge, HZ University of Applied Sciences
• Elena Cavagnaro, Lecturer in Sustainability in Hospitality and Tourism, Academic of International Hospitality Research, NHL Stenden University of Applied Sciences
• Akke Folmer, Lecturer-Researcher, Academy of Leisure & Tourism, NHL Stenden University of Applied Sciences
• Stefan Hartman, Director European Tourism Futures Institute, NHL Stenden University of Applied Sciences
• Jasper Heslinga, Program Manager CELTH & Senior Researcher, European Tourism Futures Institute, NHL Stenden University of Applied Sciences
• Jeroen Klijs, Lecturer in Social Impacts of Tourism, Breda University of Applied Sciences
• Diana Korteweg Maris, Center for Coastal Tourism Knowledge, HZ University of Applied Sciences
• Erwin Losekoot, Lecturer in Hospitality Studies, Academic of International Hospitality Research, NHL Stenden University of Applied Sciences
• Albert Postma, Lecturer in Scenario Planning, European Tourism Futures Institute, NHL Stenden University of Applied Sciences
• Menno Stokman, Director CELTH

Approach

Together with researchers affiliated with CELTH, we conducted an online scenario planning workshop. Through this project, CELTH aims to support destinations, businesses, and organizations involved in the visitor economy in outlining a perspective. This perspective served as a roadmap for exploring new directions, enabling them to confidently face the future after the challenges posed by the COVID-19 crisis. Researchers from ETFI were responsible for the entire output. Various experts from and through the CELTH network were involved throughout the process and in the interactive formats used to gather input from them.

Results

Our efforts have resulted in four future perspectives for the visitor economy in the post-COVID-19 era. This has led to a widely read publication that has attracted a diverse readership. It is not only being read but also actively utilized, resulting in numerous presentations and workshops. Serving as a valuable resource for various sectors worldwide, you can access it here.

This research project recently ended.