4 scenarios for leisure, tourism and hospitality after the corona crisis

Together with CELTH, we have developed four perspectives for the visitor economy after the COVID-19 crisis. The exploratory scenarios are the first step in working on a future-proof hospitality sector and sustainable destinations in dialogue with entrepreneurs, financiers, governments, DMOs and knowledge parties. Will it remain “business as usual” or will it become “survival of the fittest”? Or will the crisis lead to “business as unusual” with a visitor economy in transition or responsible tourism? And what are the implications of this?

How do we recover from the corona crisis?

Destinations and the hospitality sector – the leisure, tourism and hospitality sector – are hit hard worldwide by the COVID-19 crisis. During this first period, national governments are trying to give the hospitality sector a saving hand with a package of financial measures. However, the discussion lacks a longer-term perspective. With these perspectives, we want to work with parties in search of creative, innovative and sustainable innovation.

Explorative scenarios offer a long-term perspective

Scenarios are a common term in this time of crisis. We use exploratory scenarios that outline a long-term perspective. Such scenarios paint a plausible picture of the situation that the sector could encounter. As a basis for a dialogue between entrepreneurs, financiers, governments, DMOs and knowledge parties. Thereby, it can be used by destinations and the sector for the creation of future-proof strategic choices.

Visitor economy in 2025

We believe that the situation of the visitor economy in 2025 will mainly be determined by the length and depth of the crisis and whether we will become a society where individualism continues to reign supreme or whether the collective interest becomes more prominent, or the moral dilemma of the citizen/consumer. The combination of both leads to four future prospects:

Scenario 1: Business as usual – continued growth in visitor economy
Scenario 2: Survival of the fittest – collapsed visitor economy
Scenario 3: Business as unusual – visitor economy in transition
Scenario 4: Responsible Tourism – transformed visitor economy

How can the leisure, tourism and hospitality sector use the scenarios?

When we realise that the future may contain elements of each of the scenarios, together they serve as inspiration. Parties can use the scenarios, for example, to review existing policies and incentives. But also as a source of inspiration to reinvent the company, sector or destination in a creative and innovative way. This may involve a new concept, a new revenue model, new products or services, new incentives, or other strategic choices that fit the requirements of the new situation.

We are happy to facilitate the process of developing the scenarios together with players in the leisure, tourism and hospitality sector and are helping all parties to deal with the challenges that the crisis poses.